Sign in Subscribe

Market Scope Daily — July 1, 2026

Expiry day ends with late buying; FIIs dump ₹2,500 Cr in cash — the number to watch now. From what FIIs are quietly doing in the cash market to the RBI's financial stability warning and the IT sector's multi-year meltdown

The Setup

Both Nifty and Bank Nifty closed slightly weak on monthly expiry day, but there's an important nuance: buyers stepped in during the last 30 minutes of trade. The daily candle itself is distorted by expiry dynamics and shouldn't be read at face value. Tomorrow's session — the first of the new series — will give a much cleaner read on where sentiment actually stands.FII Futures: Sold ₹6,800 Cr — but this is largely rollover activity.FII Stock (Cash): Sold ₹2,500 Cr. This is the cleanest number today — cash market selling is not impacted by expiry rollover noise.

Bottom line: Expiry day data is too noisy to trade off. The one clean signal is persistent FII cash selling. Watch how the market opens tomorrow in the fresh July series — that's when the real picture emerges.

Today's Headlines

Markets & Corporate

  • Nifty IT hit its lowest level since April 2023 — TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Tech all fell up to 3%. JPMorgan warned the sector's recovery could take years as enterprises rethink spending amid AI disruption. The index is now down 42% from record highs and 30% since February 2026.
  • Maruti Suzuki surged ~5% after Jefferies upgraded to Buy with a target of ₹16,500, citing strong passenger vehicle demand and easing input costs.
  • Delhi EV Policy 2.0 approved — ₹15,000 crore outlay, subsidies up to ₹1 lakh on 4Ws, only EVs registered from 2028. Ola Electric jumped 11%, Ather Energy +3%, while Eicher (Royal Enfield) skidded 6.5% as the policy effectively sidelines ICE two-wheelers.
  • MSC acquires 49% stake in Adani's Vizhinjam port for ₹13,220 crore — the largest foreign private investment in Indian port infrastructure. Axis Capital estimates the port could generate ₹1,410 crore in EBITDA post Phase 2 expansion.
  • CCI cleared the Aditya Birla-led consortium's ₹16,660 crore buyout of IPL team RCB (Royal Challengers Bengaluru) from Diageo's USL.
  • Deutsche Bank exits India retail banking — Kotak Mahindra takes over operations for ₹282 crore.
  • CBI arrested officials from IDFC First Bank and AU Small Finance Bank over alleged links to a fund misappropriation case involving diversion of Haryana government funds.
  • India Semiconductor Mission 2.0 gets ₹1.25 lakh crore nod from the Finance Ministry panel — targeting 75% domestic semiconductor demand met by 2030.

RBI Financial Stability Report (Key Takeaways)

The RBI released its bi-annual Financial Stability Report today. The headline is reassuring — banks are in the best shape in decades — but there are pockets of stress worth watching:

  • Bank NPAs at a multi-decadal low of 1.8%. Stress tests show capital levels stay above regulatory minimums even in tough scenarios.
  • Fintech personal loan defaults rising — delinquency at 6.4% for fintechs vs. much lower for banks and NBFCs. Fintechs now hold 57% of small personal loans (under ₹50,000). The RBI is clearly flagging this segment.
  • Household debt at 45.5% of GDP (as of Sep 2025), driven by a surge in non-housing retail loans.
  • Insurance solvency buffers thinning — general insurance sector more concerning, with three public sector insurers persistently below minimum solvency requirements.
  • RBI also flagged leveraged hedge fund positions in sovereign bond arbitrage and rising cybersecurity risks as financial stability concerns.

Economy & Policy

  • India-US trade deal in the "last 1–2%" per US envoy Sergio Gor, who cited the personal chemistry between Modi and Trump as a driving force.
  • India and Japan are exploring direct Yen-Rupee settlement for bilateral trade, bypassing the US dollar — expected to feature in the joint statement during Japan PM Sanae Takaichi's India visit.
  • UPI goes live in Greece — now active in 10 countries across remittance and QR-based merchant payments.
  • India's fiscal deficit widened to 9.6% of target in the first two months of FY27 — well above the 0.8% in the year-ago period, reflecting geopolitical headwinds.
  • India 10-year bond on track for its best month in 7 years — driven by falling oil prices and record foreign inflows via the Fully Accessible Route.
  • Rupee posts its first quarterly gain in 5 quarters, supported by oil price decline and RBI policy measures.
  • Monsoon deficit at 39.8% — June was the 5th driest since 1901. Finance Ministry flagged water buffers as a key concern. A "Super El Niño" risk is being discussed, with analysts warning of potential rural demand destruction and market headwinds.
  • Maggi shrinkflation — Nestlé quietly cut Maggi noodle pack sizes by up to 9% while keeping prices unchanged (the ₹10 pack drops from 52g to 48g).

Global

  • Yen hit a 40-year low at 161.96 per dollar — Japan's Finance Minister flagged readiness to "act appropriately," raising intervention speculation.
  • Nikkei closed at its best quarter on record; South Korean stocks logged their best quarter in nearly 30 years; S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their strongest first-half gains in years — all driven by the AI and tech rally.
  • US-Iran talks in Doha — US envoys arrived but were meeting mediators, not the Iranian delegation directly. Brent crude ~$72–73.
  • Gold heading for its biggest monthly fall since 2008 as Fed rate hike bets strengthen.
  • Taiwan raided Super Micro in a widening probe on AI chip diversion to China.

Market Scope Daily — not investment advice. Always do your own research.